Put Critical Coal Stocks on a Recovery Clock

India entered October with about 21.8 million tonnes of coal across 190 monitored thermal plants — only 37 per cent of the normative requirement.

Eighty-two plants were already in the critical category. Under the Central Electricity Authority’s revised norms, that means coal stocks had fallen below 25 per cent of the mandated requirement.

September pushed the system harder. Peak demand reached 269 GW, the highest ever recorded for the month, while power shortages climbed to their highest monthly level since August 2023.

Coal India Limited was supplying more fuel at the same time. September production rose 9.2 per cent year on year to 53.5 million tonnes; total supplies increased 12.5 per cent to 61.2 million tonnes, including 48.9 million tonnes to the power sector.

Coal supply increased. Plant inventories kept falling.

On 1 October, a Ministry of Power direction under Section 11 of the Electricity Act, 2003 came into force for 112 captive coal-based generating stations. The plants have been directed to run at maximum available capacity through December. After meeting their own electricity needs, they must sell any surplus power on the exchanges. They must also maintain adequate coal stocks and report generation, captive consumption, power sales, available capacity and coal inventories to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) every week.

CEA already sets monthly coal-stock requirements, distinguishing plants near mines from those dependent on longer-distance supply. Falling below those levels carries operational consequences: priority for coal and railway rakes can change, while low stocks can expose generators to penalties if plant availability falls below regulatory norms. Daily monitoring shows how far each plant remains from its prescribed stock.

Relieving a shortage and rebuilding a buffer are different jobs. Extra coal may keep a generating unit operating without rebuilding enough inventory to absorb another surge in demand or a disruption in transport.

When plant stocks come under pressure, the standing Inter-Ministerial Sub-Group brings the Ministries of Power, Coal and Railways together with CEA, Coal India Limited and Singareni Collieries Company Limited. The Sub-Group already contains the agencies needed to clear supply and transport bottlenecks. CEA tracks plant inventories daily.

Published rules set no deadline for returning a critical plant to its prescribed stock.

CEA should attach a restoration date to every critical-stock case. The date would reflect the size of the deficit and the rate at which coal can realistically reach the station while generation continues. Daily reporting would then show whether net replenishment is closing the gap.

A plant that failed to take delivery of allocated coal should not be treated like one waiting on rail capacity. During very high generation, even normal deliveries may arrive too slowly to rebuild stocks. CEA’s daily record should identify the bottleneck and the responsible institution, and revise the restoration date when conditions change.

Monitoring should continue until the prescribed stock level is restored.

Coal available at a mine offers little protection to a generating station waiting for fuel elsewhere in the network. Strong national supply numbers can coexist with thin inventories at individual plants.

Higher electricity demand leaves less room for depleted plant inventories. Thermal generation will continue carrying substantial load during periods of system stress even as renewable capacity, storage and transmission expand.

A depleted coal buffer can become a power-reliability problem. If fuel shortages constrain generation, the effect can reach the factory floor.