India’s 2047 Steel Goals Need a Route-Sensitive Resource Plan

India’s draft steel policy calculates 2047 raw-material demand from a fixed production structure, while its low-carbon roadmap allows the technology pathway to evolve. The five-year review should update ore, coal, scrap, power and hydrogen demand accordingly. India’s draft National Steel Policy projects 143 million tonnes of direct-reduced iron, or DRI, demand in 2047.

Its raw-material annexure assigns 167 million tonnes of non-coking coal to DRI and assumes 1.2 tonnes of coal for every tonne produced. On that basis, the coal line corresponds to about 139 million tonnes of DRI — almost the entire projected requirement.

Chapter 6 of the draft National Steel Policy sets out the low-carbon transition in four overlapping phases. Between 2035 and 2040, green-hydrogen-based DRI and carbon capture, utilisation and storage are the lead levers.

From 2040 to 2047, CCUS takes the lead on inherent process and residual emissions, while the measures introduced earlier continue at scale. The draft does not assume conventional steelmaking disappears: it envisages blast-furnace and basic-oxygen-furnace production continuing with lower coal use and a greater role for CCUS.

The issue is the calculation between them.

India is planning 604 million tonnes of crude-steel capacity and 531 million tonnes of production by 2047. Annexure II-B of the draft translates that scale into an indicative raw-material requirement using a defined steelmaking mix: 55 per cent basic oxygen furnace, 30 per cent electric arc furnace and 15 per cent induction furnace, with specified charge assumptions.

Change the route and the resource requirement changes.

Hydrogen-based DRI needs hydrogen, large volumes of clean electricity and high-grade iron ore. The ore question is material for India: the draft records a fall in the share of high-grade ore from 70 per cent in FY19 to 46 per cent in FY22. Conventional hydrogen-DRI technology places a premium on high-grade ore and pellets, increasing the importance of beneficiation and pelletisation.

Scrap can move the system in another direction. Paragraph 12.8 says greater scrap availability after 2035 may alter the steelmaking mix, while established routes retain their importance. Paragraph 12.10 provides for reviews of demand and capacity roughly every five years as technology, consumption, trade and climate conditions change. Raw-material demand is not specifically included in that review.

The scrap projection needs a clearer calculation basis. The draft puts 2047 ferrous-scrap consumption at 123 million tonnes and describes this as around 21 per cent of crude-steel production. Against projected production of 531 million tonnes, the share is 23.2 per cent. The published calculation does not explain the difference.

The carbon target requires the same clarity. Average emissions intensity is meant to fall from 2.54 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of crude steel to about 1.54 by 2047. The draft identifies hydrogen-based DRI, scrap, renewable electricity and carbon capture among the levers, without stating what share of 2047 production is expected to use each.

The analytical foundation exists. The Ministry’s Greening the Steel Sector in India work maps hydrogen, scrap, process transition and carbon capture. International modelling by the IEA also separates steelmaking routes because feedstock and energy needs change with technology.

The five-year review is where these strands can meet.

At every review, Annexure II-B should be recalculated against the production routes then expected. The updated table would show the resulting demand for iron ore, coking and non-coking coal, scrap, electricity and hydrogen, along with emissions intensity and the assumptions used to derive them.

Steelmakers would retain their technology choices. Government would have a current resource plan for mines, imports, power, railways and ports.

The draft remains open for suggestions until 30 October. One addition would materially strengthen it: when technology or policy changes the expected steelmaking mix, the five-year review should recalculate the resources required to support it.